A lot of credit. It's the strongest part of the bear case, and US DAU is my #1 watch metric. But flat users and flat revenue are different things: US ad revenue still grew 56% on that flat base, and Meta compounded ARPU for a decade with flat North America users. Bears win if stagnation turns into decline. My bear case already caps growth at 20%.
Hi Dan,
Thank you for this article, is there a reason why you aren’t including RDDT in your portfolio?
Based on your analysis it seems quite compelling and lucrative, just curious!
Thanks!
Hi arterrex,
Thanks for your question. Please wait for the next portfolio update - you will it in the next update.
I look forward to it!
How much credit do you think bears have in the context of logged-in DAU stagnation?
A lot of credit. It's the strongest part of the bear case, and US DAU is my #1 watch metric. But flat users and flat revenue are different things: US ad revenue still grew 56% on that flat base, and Meta compounded ARPU for a decade with flat North America users. Bears win if stagnation turns into decline. My bear case already caps growth at 20%.