About Long-Term Pick
I analyze high-quality companies, build my own valuation models, and invest my own money in line with my conclusions. Then I publish the results, winners and losers alike. Since December 2021, the portfolio is up +101% vs +68% for the S&P 500 (about 16% a year, at no more risk than the index). The rules behind every decision are in the LTP Portfolio Manifest. If you read one thing here, read that.
My story
I am Dan. I spent over 12 years in software engineering and technical management before investing became the second thing I took seriously. Like most people, I started badly - buying hyped stocks and ETFs like ARKK because they were going up, not because I understood them. The losses that followed taught me more than any win could have.
Over the last 5+ years, I rebuilt the way I invest from the ground up, around one idea: own high-quality businesses, pay less than they are worth, and give them years to compound. Long-Term Pick is where I share that process in full. Not tips, but the actual research, the models, and the portfolio I run with my own savings.
What to expect
Company deep dives. Full analyses of businesses I find attractive, each ending with a fair price and the exact triggers that would make me sell.
The monthly portfolio update. In the first days of every month: returns vs benchmarks, every trade with reasoning, allocation, and the watchlist with fair prices and buy zones.
Investing notes. Shorter pieces on a trend, a metric, or a single idea.
Most posts are written in plain English. I invest for a 5-7 year horizon, so nothing here is a trade of the week.
How I pick companies
A company has to earn its place. The core tests:
An economic moat I can name in one sentence - switching costs, network effects, a premium brand, or unique assets.
Forward EPS growth of 10%+ over the next 3-5 years, on consensus estimates.
ROIC of 15% or higher - the clearest sign the moat is real. And double-digit margins holding at or above their history.
A strong balance sheet. Net cash preferred, debt only when it is small next to free cash flow.
A valuation below the company’s own 5-year average. I buy quality when the market is afraid of it, not when it celebrates it.
The full framework (how I size positions, when I sell, and the cash rule that keeps dry powder ready for fear) is in the Manifest.
Free and paid
Free subscribers get most posts, including the performance and track record of the portfolio.
Paid subscribers get everything: the full portfolio (every position, weight, and entry price), the watchlist with fair prices and buy zones, the complete deep dives, and the comment threads where I answer questions directly.
Founding members get all of the above, plus a personal note from me every quarter and a direct line for questions.
How I make this
The research, the valuation models, the fair prices, and every number in my posts are mine: I pull the data from my own paid subscriptions, build the charts and models myself, and invest my own money in line with my conclusions. English is not my first language, so I use AI to turn my notes, models, and conclusions into readable prose, and to cross-check figures. The thinking is human, the writing is assisted. It still takes days to make one post. The paid tools I use: Koyfin for data, Grammarly for writing, and Claude for double-checking figures.
Your contribution
A paid subscription is what lets me spend days on one honest analysis instead of chasing clicks. If the work helps you invest better, that support is what keeps it going. Thank you for reading.
Best,
Dan
This is not a financial or investing recommendation. It is solely for educational purposes.
