LTP Notes 007: ChatGPT's Costly Evolution, Winners During Stagflation, Investing With Insiders, and Others
Some investing notes that may help you gain insights or make long-term decisions.
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Content:
🤖 ChatGPT's Costly Evolution
🥇 Winners During Stagflation
💰 Investing With Insiders
🪙 Bitcoin vs. Internet Adoption
🩶 Silver Demand
😢 Control Your Emotions
🤖 ChatGPT's Costly Evolution
The escalating training costs of ChatGPT models, from ChatGPT-2 to ChatGPT-5. The graph shows a dramatic increase in costs across successive model versions, with ChatGPT-2 costing a mere $40,000 to train, while ChatGPT-5's training expenses range from $1.25 billion to $2.25 billion.
The absolute contrast between earlier and later models emphasises the significant investment required for advancing AI technology.
Stocks and ETFs to watch: NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD, BOTZ, AIQ
🥇 Winners During Stagflation
A detailed comparison of average real (inflation-adjusted) year-over-year total returns for various asset classes across different economic environments since 1973.
Gold is the top performer during stagflation, yielding an impressive 22.1%. REITs lead in Goldilocks conditions at 18.1%. Commodities thrive in reflation but struggle in disinflation.
Goldilocks: Steady growth, low inflation
Disinflation: Slowing inflation, positive growth
Reflation: Accelerating growth and inflation
Stagflation: Slow growth, high inflation
Stocks and ETFs to watch: GLD, VNQ, TLT, DBC
💰 Investing With Insiders
Insider trading is when someone uses secret information to buy or sell stocks before the public knows about it. While there are laws to stop it, some people, especially politicians, still find ways to benefit. The STOCK Act of 2012 was created to prevent government officials from trading based on private information, but penalties are often small, and many still make big profits.
For regular investors, there are now two ETFs that follow the trades of politicians: NANC (tracking Democrats) and KRUZ (tracking Republicans). NANC has done better on a 1-year period, with a 40.53% return, while KRUZ is at 27.74%. Compare them with the S&P 500 🙂
Stocks and ETFs to watch: NANC, KRUZ
🪙 Bitcoin vs. Internet Adoption
Bitcoin’s adoption is growing even faster than the Internet in the 90s. In 2023, more people are using Bitcoin than the number of Internet users in 1999. This shows Bitcoin could be in its early stage, but with even more potential to grow quickly.
Stocks and ETFs to watch: COIN, MSTR, BITO
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🩶 Silver Demand
Silver is becoming more important than ever for the future, especially in the renewable energy space. By 2024, it’s predicted that the solar industry alone will require 232.2 million ounces of silver, accounting for 23% of the total silver supply. Each solar panel uses about 20 grams of silver, which means that as solar power continues to expand, the demand for silver will keep rising.
Renewables are expected to generate more electricity than coal by 2025. If this trend continues, we could see a significant impact on silver prices as the world moves toward cleaner energy sources.
Stocks and ETFs to watch: SLV, AG, PAAS, TAN
😢 Control Your Emotions
Investing based on emotions can often lead to poor decisions. When markets are doing well, many investors rush to buy, and when markets fall, they pull their money out — exactly the opposite of what builds wealth. As Warren Buffett says, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." From 1997 to 2013, investors pulled money out during crashes and missed big recoveries, while overinvesting during market peaks.
Successful investors stay disciplined, ignore short-term market noise, and stick to a strategy. Don’t let emotions guide your decisions — focus on the bigger picture.
Stocks and ETFs to watch: VTI, VOO, VT
This is not a financial or investing recommendation. It is solely for educational purposes.