A comprehensive analysis of LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy), a global luxury goods conglomerate currently overvalued by 34.59% but showing compelling long-term potential.
Finally someone that doesn’t say LVMH is undervalued by a lot!
This company cannot grow 10%+ each year like the post Covid era growth numbers will normalize around 8-9, therefore like you said with a div of 1.5% we’re looking at 9.5-10.5% return each year without PE expansion. PE of 21 for a company that grows at 9% seems a bit excessive so I don’t even expect PE expansion at these levels.
Most analysts have a 1-year price target of €800 (the stock closed today at €612). It is one of the stocks that is part of my core portfolio and some substack newsletters. The most concensual opinion is that at these prices the annual return will be around 12%. Time will tell who is right. Perhaps the difference lies in the security margin you applied. In the last 10 years MC had better performance than Google, another stock i like at this prices. I think both stocks resist well to a recession cenario (increasingly likely).
Thanks for the detailed analysis! Very true what you say regarding Arnauld and the potential diminishing returns for new acquisitions. Unlike Kering, the variety of its brands portoflio will make the stock more stable and resilient. Time will tell.
Ima be real with you, you are way off mark on this one, also using trailing fcf when their largest region is coming out of a decline & US/Euro high rates regime does not make sense, 28-32 EUR EPS is realistic for FY25, you seriously underestimate how much money this company makes. Lol a sub 20 PE for one of the strongest established brands in human history, ill see you when this is 1,000 eur a pop and be laughing to the bank (at this rate I will not be waiting very long)
Finally someone that doesn’t say LVMH is undervalued by a lot!
This company cannot grow 10%+ each year like the post Covid era growth numbers will normalize around 8-9, therefore like you said with a div of 1.5% we’re looking at 9.5-10.5% return each year without PE expansion. PE of 21 for a company that grows at 9% seems a bit excessive so I don’t even expect PE expansion at these levels.
Thanks for your work here!
Thanks for your feedback!
Most analysts have a 1-year price target of €800 (the stock closed today at €612). It is one of the stocks that is part of my core portfolio and some substack newsletters. The most concensual opinion is that at these prices the annual return will be around 12%. Time will tell who is right. Perhaps the difference lies in the security margin you applied. In the last 10 years MC had better performance than Google, another stock i like at this prices. I think both stocks resist well to a recession cenario (increasingly likely).
Thanks for your comment!
Wow! Thought it is a buy for you too...
Thanks for the detailed analysis! Very true what you say regarding Arnauld and the potential diminishing returns for new acquisitions. Unlike Kering, the variety of its brands portoflio will make the stock more stable and resilient. Time will tell.
Ima be real with you, you are way off mark on this one, also using trailing fcf when their largest region is coming out of a decline & US/Euro high rates regime does not make sense, 28-32 EUR EPS is realistic for FY25, you seriously underestimate how much money this company makes. Lol a sub 20 PE for one of the strongest established brands in human history, ill see you when this is 1,000 eur a pop and be laughing to the bank (at this rate I will not be waiting very long)