Overview: IDXX, MRK, MOH, NVO, PINS, and FTNT

Overview: IDXX, MRK, MOH, NVO, PINS, and FTNT

Below is a summary of the most significant news and events from the past six months, as I see it, for the second group of companies (first). Additionally, I will add charts to compare the current prices with my fair price estimates.

I would like to remind you that the fair value (fair price) is reassessed after quarterly reports. Fair-to-Current Price: 🟢 green - undervalued, 🔵 blue - fairly valued (+/- 5% is “fairly”), 🟡 yellow - overvalued.

🟡 IDEXX (IDXX)

Next earning report: Feb 3, 2025 (confirmed)
Fair Price: $401.45
Current Price/Fair Price: 1.08 (+8.27%)

IDEXX: Great Business But a Bit Overpriced

IDXX Current Price vs Fair Price, 5-Year Timeframe (Author’s Chart via Koyfin)

• Share Repurchase Program Expansion: IDEXX Laboratories announced an increase in its share repurchase program, allowing the buyback of 5 million additional shares. This is on top of the 1.3 million shares already authorized, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

IDXX Shares Outstanding, 5-Year Period (Author’s Chart via Koyfin)

• CFO Transition: The company announced a transition in its Chief Financial Officer position. This change is significant as it may impact the company's financial strategies and overall management direction moving forward.

• Expansion of Diagnostic Test Menu: IDEXX expanded its test menu for the Catalyst platform, enhancing support for veterinarians in diagnosing pancreatitis. This move aims to improve veterinary care and expand IDEXX's offerings in the pet healthcare market.

• Launch of Innovative Software Solution: The company introduced Vello, a new pet owner engagement software that streamlines communication between veterinary practices and clients. This innovation aims to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency.

  

  Vello (Author’s Screenshot)

• Expansion of Fecal Dx Testing Platform: The company expanded its fecal diagnostic testing capabilities with the addition of cystoisospora detection, marking a significant enhancement in its diagnostic services offered to veterinarians.

• New Slide-Free Cellular Analyzer Launch: IDEXX launched the revolutionary slide-free cellular analyzer, IDEXX inVue Dx, which aims to transform workflows in veterinary clinics by improving efficiency and accuracy in diagnostics.

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🟢 Merck & Co. (MRK)

Next earning report: Feb 4, 2025 (estimated)
Fair Price: $148.54
Current Price/Fair Price: 0.65 (-35.27%)

Merck: Large Value Company Currently Undervalued

MRK Current Price vs Fair Price, 5-Year Timeframe (Author’s Chart via Koyfin)

• FDA Acceptance for Clesrovimab: Merck announced that the FDA accepted its Biologics License Application for clesrovimab, a monoclonal antibody aimed at protecting infants from RSV. The acceptance of the BLA for clesrovimab marks a significant regulatory milestone, as it aims to fill an unmet need in RSV prevention for infants, which is a growing concern in pediatric healthcare.

• Strategic Focus on Oncology: Merck continues to strengthen its oncology pipeline, particularly the combination trials for Keytruda, which are crucial for maintaining its market share in immuno-oncology despite upcoming patent expirations.

Projected Cancer Cases by Region 2030 (Novartis)

• Pipeline Developments: Updates on Merck's Phase II Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADC) assets could enhance the market perception of the company's pipeline, potentially influencing future growth estimates.

• Focus on Global Markets: The company is working to stabilize Gardasil revenues in developing markets, particularly in China, where adoption rates may affect overall growth projections.

🟢 Molina Healthcare (MOH)

Next earning report: Feb 5, 2025 (confirmed)
Fair Price: $386.90
Current Price/Fair Price: 0.77 (-23.18%)

Molina Healthcare: Focus On Low-Income Populations

MOH Current Price vs Fair Price, 5-Year Timeframe (Author’s Chart via Koyfin)

• New Florida Medicaid Contract: Molina Healthcare was awarded a new Medicaid managed care contract by the Florida Agency for Healthcare Administration, which had to begin on January 1, 2025, and will last until December 31, 2030. This contract will enable Molina to serve approximately 90,000 Medicaid beneficiaries in Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties, significantly expanding its footprint in Florida.

• Wisconsin Contract Award: MH of Wisconsin received a notice of intent to award a contract from the Wisconsin Department of Health Services. The contract had to start on January 1, 2025 and will last for two years, with options for extensions. This will enhance Molina's services in the region.

• Expansion into Dual-Eligible Market: Molina secured significant contracts in Michigan and Idaho to serve dual-eligible populations (those enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid). The Michigan contract will start on January 1, 2026, covering eleven service regions, while the Idaho contract will also begin on the same date. The new contracts in Michigan and Idaho represent substantial membership growth potential for Molina.

• Quality Improvement Initiative: MH launched a quality improvement project in collaboration with the California Medical Association’s Physician Services Organization. This initiative aims to enhance Medi-Cal healthcare in the Inland Empire by empowering physicians with resources and support over the next two years.

• Senior Notes Offering: Molina completed an offering of $750 million in senior notes due in 2033, carrying a 6.250% interest rate. The proceeds will be used for various corporate purposes, including debt repayment and capital expenditures.

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🟢 Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Next earning report: Feb 5, 2025 (confirmed)
Fair Price: $124.92
Current Price/Fair Price: 0.65 (-35.21%)

Novo Nordisk: Diabetes Care Leader Below Fair Price

NVO Current Price vs Fair Price, 5-Year Timeframe (Author’s Chart via Koyfin)

• FDA Price Negotiations for GLP-1 Drugs: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) included Novo Nordisk's blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, in its latest list of 15 drugs for Medicare price negotiations. This announcement caused Novo's shares to drop, raising concerns about future revenue impacts.

• Semaglutide 7.2 mg Trial Success: Novo Nordisk announced positive results from the STEP UP trial for Semaglutide 7.2 mg, showing a significant weight loss of 20.7% over 72 weeks compared to placebo. Detailed results will be presented at a scientific conference later in 2025.

• Collaboration with Valo Health: Novo Nordisk expanded its partnership with Valo Health to develop new treatments for cardiometabolic diseases, demonstrating its focus on innovation and chronic disease management.

• Acquisition of Manufacturing Sites: Novo Nordisk completed the acquisition of three manufacturing sites.

• Share Repurchase Program: As of January 17, 2025, Novo Nordisk repurchased a total of 3,488,267 shares under its ongoing share buyback program, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders.

NVO Shares Repurcasing (Yahoo Finance)

• Disappointing CagriSema Trial Results: Results from the REDEFINE-1 trial showed that the next-generation obesity drug CagriSema achieved lower-than-expected weight loss compared to current treatments, leading to concerns about its future potential. However, the company plans to start a new trial in the first half of 2025 to further explore the potential of CagriSema as a weight-loss treatment, aiming to address concerns raised by earlier trial results.

• UBS Stock Upgrade: UBS upgraded Novo Nordisk's stock from "neutral" to "buy," citing an attractive entry point after recent share declines. However, analysts lowered sales projections due to patent expirations and disappointing trial results.

  

  Growth of the Weight-Loss Drug Market (Visual Capitalist)

• Market Leadership in Weight-Loss Drugs: Despite challenges, Novo Nordisk remains a leader in the weight-loss drug market with Ozempic and Wegovy, having a 55% market share.

🟢 Pinterest (PINS)

Next earning report: Feb 6, 2025 (confirmed)
Fair Price: $42.92
Current Price/Fair Price: 0.75 (-24.75%)

📌 The Most Undervalued Social Media Stock. PINS Stock Analysis

PINS Current Price vs Fair Price, 5-Year Timeframe (Author’s Chart via Koyfin)

• Trend Predictions for 2025: Pinterest released its annual trend report for 2025, highlighting 20 emerging trends based on user engagement data. The report emphasizes boldness and authenticity, with 65% of trends driven by Gen Z, showcasing their influence on future styles and preferences. Below are some quotes.

🔵 Fortinet (FTNT)

Next earning report: Feb 6, 2025 (confirmed)
Fair Price: $94.88
Current Price/Fair Price: 1.03 (+2.72%)

🛡️ Fortinet, constant evolution, and the cybersecurity landscape. FTNT Stock Analysis

FTNT Current Price vs Fair Price, 5-Year Timeframe (Author’s Chart via Koyfin)

• Share Repurchase Program: Fortinet announced that its board of directors approved a $1 billion increase in its share repurchase program, bringing the total amount to $2.03 billion. This demonstrates the company’s confidence in its financial health and commitment to enhancing shareholder value.

FTNT Shares Outstanding, 5-Year Period (Author’s Chart via Koyfin)

• Acquisition of Perception Point: The company completed its acquisition of Perception Point, a leader in advanced threat prevention for email, browsers, and SaaS applications. This acquisition strengthens Fortinet’s AI-powered cybersecurity capabilities and expands its portfolio to address modern workforce security needs.

  

  Perception Point (Author’s Screenshot)

• Fortinet launched the FortiGate Rugged 70G, a next-generation firewall designed for industrial environments. It combines enterprise-grade security with high-performance 5G networking to address cybersecurity challenges in operational technology systems.

  

  FortiGate Rugged 70G (Author’s Screenshot)

• Key Growth Areas: Fortinet reaffirmed its focus on three key growth areas: Secure Networking, Unified SASE (Secure Access Service Edge), and Security Operations.

• Partnership With Google Cloud: Fortinet deepened its partnership with Google Cloud to enhance its SASE offerings and provide secure access solutions for hybrid workforces. This collaboration integrates Fortinet's security technologies with Google Cloud's infrastructure to enable Zero Trust architectures.

• Launch of FortiAppSec Cloud: Fortinet launched FortiAppSec Cloud, a new cloud-delivered platform designed to enhance web application and API security across multi-cloud environments. This platform integrates advanced threat protection features, including AI-driven threat detection and automated responses, to safeguard against common vulnerabilities like SQL injection and cross-site scripting. FortiAppSec Cloud aims to simplify security management for organizations while improving performance and scalability in securing modern applications.

  

  FortiAppSec Cloud (Author’s Screenshot)

• Latest Version of FortiOS: Fortinet announced the latest version of its FortiOS operating system and other major enhancements to the company’s cybersecurity platform, the Fortinet Security Fabric. Updates deliver new generative AI, data protection, managed services, and unified agent features to empower customers to mitigate risk better, reduce complexity, and realize a superior user experience across their entire network.

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